Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.200143 9.667114 11.275899 13.165176 15.316790 17.684459 20.480384
2025-02-09 5.941449 7.924208 10.324996 13.417330 17.263210 21.855277 27.715929
2025-02-16 4.391585 6.534287 9.362171 13.300051 18.563857 25.271564 34.365456
2025-02-23 3.269874 5.380140 8.390663 12.880602 19.265570 27.858494 40.101758
2025-03-02 2.451722 4.437355 7.483178 12.318350 19.583614 29.838354 45.086041
2025-03-09 1.964871 3.877264 7.006994 12.253874 20.518804 32.662395 51.369857
2025-03-16 1.566272 3.363957 6.495784 12.024401 21.124043 34.995211 57.060680
2025-03-23 1.390481 3.205641 6.535262 12.664245 23.111906 39.506590 66.247107
2025-03-30 1.179229 2.927921 6.311199 12.809788 24.284056 42.815383 73.793692
2025-04-06 0.992855 2.655118 6.044941 12.831151 25.224310 45.793544 80.983218
2025-04-13 0.834235 2.402647 5.771320 12.791477 26.032905 48.586190 88.018519
2025-04-20 0.784678 2.391446 5.980055 13.685255 28.568429 54.400907 100.283587
2025-04-27 0.708275 2.302440 6.023336 14.282886 30.660786 59.681012 112.116599
2025-05-04 0.636496 2.208709 6.043698 14.840836 32.737608 65.090688 124.521475
2025-05-11 0.537666 2.013062 5.798703 14.812025 33.683105 68.565587 133.821981
2025-05-18 0.434411 1.770844 5.396616 14.385445 33.794581 70.531249 140.592641
2025-05-25 0.342273 1.529146 4.945164 13.778631 33.467729 71.645401 145.888934
2025-06-01 0.288022 1.393707 4.741308 13.711454 34.242030 74.854630 155.109034
2025-06-08 0.236549 1.247536 4.477354 13.460222 34.591614 77.259034 162.964134
2025-06-15 0.221214 1.235855 4.594319 14.164589 37.080416 83.964215 179.127522
2025-06-22 0.192761 1.158967 4.503018 14.324795 38.363562 88.346712 191.105217
2025-06-29 0.165061 1.073168 4.366733 14.348338 39.334267 92.151738 202.155488
2025-07-06 0.140062 0.987846 4.213588 14.304731 40.141223 95.662242 212.793560